Bitcoin rose by about 26% in August, reaching a high of $80,000 at one point, but then fell back. According to foreign media, after the Fed's hawkish stance, weakening spot ETF funds, and escalating geopolitical tensions, market expectations for September's trend have become significantly divided. Several AI models have projected ranges ranging from $60,000 to $100,000.
There is first a cooling down in the funding situation.
As of around the time of this report, Bitcoin fell back to around $78,900 per coin. The report mentioned that on August 28th, there was a net outflow of $211.2 million in US Bitcoin spot ETF on a single day, ending a streak of nine consecutive trading days with net inflows.
Polymarket Data shows that market bets on a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in mid-September have risen to 57%, with a 42% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged. Against this backdrop, interest rate expectations have once again become an important variable for short-term trading.
In addition to monetary policy, the upgraded Sino-Iranian conflict over the weekend, as well as a series of economic data to be released in September, are also seen as factors that may continue to affect the volatility of risky assets.
Claude interval is the widest
Anthropic's Claude Sonnet predicts that the Bitcoin range in September will be between $75,000 and $97,000. The report states that this wider range is mainly based on historical trends and technical analysis.
According to the short-term analysis of this model, if the price manages to stabilize above $78,000 again, the bulls still have a chance to continue their upward momentum; if it breaks through $82,000, the target could be around $97,000. On the other hand, if $76,000 is lost, the price might fall back to around $69,000.
ChatGPT and Gemini show fluctuating trends
The ChatGPT of OpenAI sets $74,000 to $88,000 as the most likely base scenario for September, with a probability weight of about 50%. The pessimistic scenario is $65,000 to $73,000, while the optimistic scenario is $89,000 to $100,000.
Google's Gemini places more emphasis on range consolidation. The model suggests that if the resistance of $82,000 is broken through, Bitcoin could rise to between $82,000 and $97,000; a neutral scenario would see it fluctuate within the range of $77,000 to $82,000; if an adjustment occurs, the range might move down to between $72,000 and $76,800.
Overall, these three types of models do not indicate a consistent direction. Foreign media believes that in September, Bitcoin is more likely to fluctuate within a wider range, rather than rising in a straight line to $100,000.
