After the U.S. employment data in August exceeded expectations, markets recalibrated their assumptions about the Federal Reserve's policy path. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose, causing Bitcoin to fall back below $80,000. During the session, the price once reached around $81,400, then touched a low of around $78,700, and as of this report, it was fluctuating near $79,600.
Employment data boosts expectations for interest rate hikes
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that non-farm employment increased by 162,000 in August, significantly higher than the average monthly increase of 31,000 over the past 12 months, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Following the release of the data, interest rate markets raised expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its meeting on September 15-16.
Reuters, citing market pricing, reported that the implied probability of a rate hike rose from 52% before the data release to 61%. Citibank subsequently postponed the expected time for the next interest rate cut from October 2026 to June 2027. Higher interest rate expectations also drove up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Resistance encountered again around $82,500
Before this round of decline, Bitcoin had just rebounded rapidly from around $62,500 in August, with a temporary increase of about 30%. However, there were two consecutive attempts to suppress the upward movement in the range of $82,000 to $82,800, indicating that selling pressure from above still exists.
From a daily chart perspective, around $82,500 remains the current main resistance level, which is close to the high point in May. If the daily chart can once again surpass this level, short-term pressure is expected to ease, and the market will continue to monitor any breakthroughs near $82,800.
The Relative Strength Index RSI is currently at around 66.28, which represents a pullback from the previous overbought range, indicating that the upward momentum has cooled down. Meanwhile, the Aroon indicator remains strong, suggesting that the impact of recent highs still outweighs that of lows, and the correction has not yet completely destroyed the previous rebound structure.
$78,000 becomes a short-term support focus
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is still operating above the Supertrend indicator, with a corresponding support level of around $78,190. Therefore, the range of $78,000 to $78,200 has become the first short-term support zone. If this area is lost, the market may shift its focus to $77,000, with further lower supports near $75,700 and $71,800.
In terms of capital distribution, the CoinGlass one-week settlement heat map shows that there are a significant number of leveraged positions concentrated around $80,000; there is also a clear liquidity band between $81,800 and $82,300, which is close to the daily resistance area. Below that, the concentration is highest around $78,000, and there is also some settlement pressure between $76,000 and $77,000.
This means that Bitcoin is currently within a range where liquidity on both the upper and lower sides is relatively high. If it manages to break back above $80,000, the price may continue to test the upper resistance level; however, if $78,000 is lost, leveraged long positions could face greater pressure, and the volatility may also increase accordingly.
Next, the market will turn its attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index for August, which was released on September 11. This data will be available five days before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and may continue to influence the market's judgment on subsequent policy directions, as well as determine whether Bitcoin can once again challenge the $82,500 level.
