Abstract
- According to Decrypt tracking data, US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $102.7 million on Thursday, followed by another $31.7 million on Friday, resulting in a total net inflow of $134.4 million at the start of October.
- Previously, on September 30, these funds experienced a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending a streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows that began on September 17.
- Weaker employment reports have reduced the probability of a rate hike in October, but traders from Myriad still estimate a 93% chance that Bitcoin will not reach new highs this year.
At least so far, Bitcoin ETF indeed fits the description of “Uptober”.
According to the Bitcoin tracking data of Decrypt, the US spot Bitcoin market attracted $102.7 million in capital inflows on Thursday, and another $31.7 million on Friday. This means that the net inflow at the start of October reached $134.4 million.
Before this “great start,” there was a “positive closing.” On September 30th, these funds experienced a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending the nine consecutive trading days of net inflows that began on September 17th. Nevertheless, according to SoSoValue data, September was still the second-best month for these funds since October 2025, with a single-month net inflow of $2.65 billion.
“Uptober” is a shorthand for the performance of the crypto market in October, as historically, October has usually been one of the months when Bitcoin performs the strongest. The “Stephen Wundke to Decrypt” in Algoz indicates that over the past decade, Bitcoin has averaged an increase of 18% in October. He said, “Traders feel that the upside potential is currently greater than the downside potential.”
The employment report released on Friday further fueled this sentiment. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the United States only added 29,000 new jobs in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. After the data was released, CME FedWatch indicated that the probability of a rate hike in October had dropped from 70% earlier this week to 14%. A weakening labor market would reduce the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, which is usually beneficial for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin briefly tested 87,173 dollars on Friday, slightly below its September high of 87,354 dollars, before pulling back. According to CoinGecko data, on Sunday morning, Bitcoin was trading at around 85,000 dollars, with a 0.5% increase over 24 hours.
According to the tracking data from Decrypt, since the launch of these funds, the cumulative net inflow has reached 58.1 billion US dollars, with a total net asset value of 101.1 billion US dollars.
However, not everyone believes that Bitcoin will break through. Myriad is a forecasting market owned by Decrypt, which is in turn owned by Dastan. According to the probabilities given by platform traders, there is a 93% chance that Bitcoin will not set a new historical high in 2026.
After experiencing a large-scale outflow of funds at the beginning of the year, ETF has still had a net inflow of less than $1 billion this year. The next test is just around the corner: the CPI report for September will be released on October 14th, and the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on October 28th.
