Apple is facing the pressure of demand for its flagship new products falling short of expectations after their release.
According to Nikkei Asia on Friday, which cited multiple sources familiar with the matter, Apple has become more cautious about its shipment expectations since early September. Two of these sources stated that compared to the original plan, component orders for iPhone, Pro, and Pro Max in October have been cut by at least 15% due to weaker market demand than expected. A senior executive source revealed that in October, the order cuts for Apple's high-end models ranged between 15% and 20%.
Meanwhile, UBS analysts pointed out in a research report this week that the delivery lead times for iPhone and Pro in over 30 markets are shortening. UBS stated, "With stable supply, the decrease in lead times, combined with the risk of demand elasticity brought about by recent price increases, makes us increasingly concerned." As a result, there is more uncertainty surrounding whether the first foldable screen models iPhone and Duo will be able to achieve strong sales after their launch on October 23rd.
Price increase of 100 yuan puts pressure on demand for high-end models
Apple released a new generation of its flagship on September 9th. The starting price for the Pro is $1,199, and for the iPhone it is $1,299; both models have seen a price increase of $100 compared to last year, and they went on sale officially on September 18th. The first foldable phone, the iPhone, with a 256GB base version, has a starting price of as high as $1,999 and will be launched in 70 countries and regions on October 23rd.
People familiar with the matter told Nikkei Asia that price is the key factor in suppressing demand. “For a smartphone, this price is simply too high,” said a person with direct knowledge of the situation. The source also noted that, given the market performance of iPhone, Pro, and Pro Max, it is expected that iPhone and Duo will face a similar fate shortly after their launch.
Despite the pressure on shipment volumes, the impact on Apple's revenue remains relatively limited for now, as the price of all models has increased by at least 10% compared to last year, providing a certain offset between volume and price. Apple's supply chain also has extensive experience in flexibly adjusting production capacity in response to market changes.
Another person familiar with the situation pointed out that from late August to October, sales demand was weaker than in the same period of previous years, but this was also partly due to Apple's adjustment of its release schedule this year. This year, Apple prioritized the launch of three high-end models, postponing the release of the standard version iPhone 18 and the new generations of iPhone and Air to next spring. "The boost to sales from the standard version iPhone 18 this year will not be reflected until the end of the year," said a supply chain management expert.
The industry continues to face headwinds, but Apple still has the potential to increase its market share.
The current weak demand for high-end models reflects the structural difficulties faced by the entire smartphone industry. The global smartphone market is encountering an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, as well as rising costs for components and raw materials. IDC predicts that in 2026, global smartphone shipments will see the largest year-on-year decline on record, with a decrease of 16.7%, and this sluggish trend is expected to continue into 2027. However, IDC also points out that driven by the surge in material costs for complete devices, various smartphone manufacturers have raised prices, with average selling prices this year increasing by 27.6% compared to last year.
In comparison, Apple is expected to face less impact in the first half of 2026 than Android manufacturers, which have significantly lowered their shipment forecasts. Analyst Yang Wang from research firm Counterpoint predicts that Apple, focusing on the high-end market, and Samsung will benefit from the pressure faced by manufacturers of lower-priced models, with both companies' market shares expected to rise from less than 20% in 2025 to over 22% in 2026.
