Bitcoin price fluctuations coincide with a cooling of sentiment in the crypto market: As of October 12, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 56, indicating a neutral stance.
A decline of about 6% in Bitcoin coincided with sell-offs in the stock market and gold, while rising oil prices and increasing yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are also putting pressure on markets other than cryptocurrencies.
Key Points
- The sentiment in the crypto market has dropped to neutral, declining from this year's high of 82.
- The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to 5.70%, the highest level since 2002.
- Myriad predicts a 56% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $80,000.
According to Decrypt, Bitcoin has fallen from $86,978 to $81,749.83, a decrease of about 6%. The report links this decline to broader macroeconomic pressures rather than attributing it to a single issue within the cryptocurrency sector.
Bitcoin price fluctuations accompany shifts in sentiment
The sentiment index dropped from 67 a week ago to 56 on October 12, returning to a neutral range. Previously, in late August, the market exhibited extreme greed.
On August 26, 2026, this indicator reached 82, the highest level of the year; one month before the release of the latest report, it was at 68. The index measures investors' risk appetite on a scale from 0 to 100: 0 represents extreme fear, and 100 represents extreme greed.
Reports indicate that the price decline and weakening sentiment occurred after a round of summer rebound; that rebound brought Bitcoin and the broader crypto market out of a bear market.
Oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields are weighing on risk assets.
Rising crude oil prices and increased long-term financing costs, along with other factors, are putting pressure on Bitcoin. Due to an increase in attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil briefly exceeded $101 per barrel last week and traded at around $110 per barrel around October 12th.
Even though Donald Trump stated that the United States would not be involved in a war until at least November, this upward trend continues.
The report links the fluctuations in Bitcoin prices to the inflation and interest rate pressures caused by rising energy costs. Oil affects shipping, manufacturing, agriculture, and travel costs; continuous increases usually get passed on to consumer prices. Higher inflation will make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and also increase the likelihood of rate hikes, as the report states that the minutes from the central bank's most recent meeting also described this trend.
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to 5.70%, a level not seen since 2002. Inflation reduces the real value of the fixed payments on bonds, prompting investors to demand higher yields. Higher returns on U.S. bonds also compete for funds with riskier investments and increase the borrowing costs for the entire economy.
Bitcoin itself does not provide returns, and it is traded as a risky asset just like stocks. Reports indicate that on October 7th, rising yields and expectations of interest rate hikes put pressure on its price. The stock market, gold, and Bitcoin all fell simultaneously during the selling spree, indicating that this was a trend driven by macroeconomic factors.
Myriad Traders Lower the Probability of a Rebound in October
Myriad Traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $87,500 in October is 45%, which is lower than the 55% on October 7th. This forecast market was developed by the parent company of the publisher, Dastan.
The probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 has also decreased from 36% to 28%.
On the downside, Myriad estimates a 56% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $80,000, a 33% probability of falling to $77,500, and a 20% probability of falling to $75,000.
This article was generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence and has been reviewed by an editorial team.
