Bitcoin market cycle signaling tools indicate that the price trend of BTC is replicating historical patterns, and it may be preparing to re-cross a key moving average and potentially test new highs.
Bitcoin is attempting to break through a "tipping point" that has historically triggered a new round of macroeconomic highs.
Key points:
- CryptoQuant reports that if Bitcoin (BTC) successfully breaks through the 20-month moving average of $87,165, BTC could continue to set new historical highs.
- Market cycle signal indicators show that BTC / USD is preparing to reclaim this “turning point frontier,” which was lost in December 2025.
- The bull-bear market cycle indicator for CryptoQuant continues to show that Bitcoin is in a bull market.
Analysis: Bitcoin "reset" completed, key trend lines reappear
Data from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant indicates that BTC / USD has begun a new round of competition with its 20-month simple moving average ( SMA ).
Bollinger Bands use standard deviation to determine the upper and lower bands, which are added to the base price of 20 months SMA respectively. Currently, these bands are located at $121,640 and $52,694. The indicator CryptoQuant describes the area between the lower band and SMA as a “foundation for accumulation,” while SMA itself is referred to as the “inflection point frontier” – this is a previous level where investors once gave up when prices fell below it from above, with the most recent occurrence in December 2025.
BTC / USD One-month chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: Cointelegraph / TradingView
As Bitcoin is now ready to challenge this "surrender zone" from below, history shows that successful breakthroughs often lead to new cycle highs.
Contributor GugaOnChain summarized in a blog post: 'More than a year after reaching a historical high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025 ( ATH ), the market has now completed a 'reset'.'
Although the Bollinger Bands are not used to provide buy/sell signals, market cycle signals indicate that when BTC / USD touch the upper band, "smart money" will begin to take profits. The current upper band is slightly below Bitcoin's latest historical high of $126,200 set in October 2025, while CryptoQuant believes that the next round of gains will continue to break through this level.
GugaOnChain added, "Although retail investors are concerned about the current price of $82,442 and consider that to be the 'top,' on-chain indicators BTC : Market Cycle Signals show that we have just begun to see a rise." He was referring to the current price support range of BTC.
Bitcoin market cycle signal chart. Source: CryptoQuant
After 20 months, the level of SMA coincides with Bitcoin's opening price in 2026, which was $87,490, reinforcing its strength as a resistance level. Cointelegraph previously reported that there is still a large amount of sell-side liquidity barrier near this area in the exchange order book.
On-chain data indicates that the Bitcoin bull market is consolidating.
This week, contributor XWIN Research Japan pointed out data for three on-chain indicators, stating that these data provide reasons for being “cautiously optimistic” and suggesting that bullish momentum may return before the end of October.
In late August, CEO Ki Young Ju officially stated that the bear market "has ended" based on readings from the bull-bear market cycle indicators. These indicators use comprehensive data from multiple on-chain profitability metrics and show that bullish momentum is accelerating: the value has risen from 0.042 in August to 0.186.
Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicators. Source: CryptoQuant
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