Ripple will unlock 1 billion XRP on September 1st according to the established schedule. The market is concerned that the additional supply will drive down prices, but past experience has shown that the amount unlocked does not necessarily equate to immediate pressure on the market.
Monthly unlocking has been ongoing for many years.
Ripple has been managing the reserves of XRP using a custodial mechanism since 2017. At that time, 55 billion XRP were placed into 55 custodial contracts, with each contract holding 1 billion coins, and they are released on a monthly basis. This arrangement means that the unlocking at the beginning of each month is not surprising, as the market usually anticipates it in advance.
Traders have pointed out that the available balance and the actual amount sold are not the same thing. In the past, Ripple would usually re-lock most of it back into a new custodial contract shortly after unlocking it.
The actual increase in circulation is usually small.
According to historical patterns, Ripple tends to reinvest around 800 million to 900 million XRP back into custody, retaining only about 100 million to 300 million XRP in the operational wallets. In August, it is said that approximately 700 million XRP were re-locked. If this practice continues in September, the actual new supply that enters the market circulation will be significantly less than the figure of 1 billion headline.
The balances of these wallets that remain outside can typically be used for institutional payments, cross-border settlement liquidity support, or business arrangements related to cooperative projects. As mentioned in the original text, this portion of tokens may also be handled through over-the-counter transactions, rather than directly entering the order books of public exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, etc.
- Historical common re-hosting scales: from 700 million to 900 million coins XRP
- Possible remaining amount in external wallets: 100 million to 300 million coins XRP
- The price mentioned in the current text is approximately $1.36.
The market is still paying attention to the progress of regulation.
Before this unlocking, the price mentioned in XRP was approximately $1.36, with a daily decline of about 1%. Since the unlocking time is fixed, the market's tracking of supply changes is relatively direct. Therefore, the short-term impact depends more on how many tokens are ultimately set aside by Ripple and how these tokens will be used.
In addition to supply factors, the U.S. Senate plans to vote on CLARITY Act on September 15, 2026, which is also seen as an important time point that affects the sentiment surrounding XRP. If regulatory expectations improve, market attention may shift from supply pressures to policy progress.
