Bitcoin prices withstood the concerns of "Black Monday," and despite the increasing warnings of a possible sell-off, crypto investors are still weighing the concerns on social media, the recent ETF redemptions, and signs of recovery in the broader market.

• After warnings on social media about another "Black Monday" for Bitcoin attracted widespread attention, its price rebounded above $82,000.
• Santiment indicates that on October 18th, the mention of “Black Monday” reached 176 times, which is significantly higher than the previous daily average record.
• US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $229 million last week, with redemptions from funds under BlackRock leading the way.
• Analysts regard $81,000 as an important support level, but for a stronger rebound signal, Bitcoin would need to once again surpass higher resistance levels.
• A Bitcoin wallet that has been inactive since 2013 transferred approximately 411 BTC to another address, worth about 34 million US dollars.

According to CoinGecko data, as of press time, Bitcoin is trading at around $82,795, up 1.13% in the past 24 hours, but still down 1.37% over the past 7 days. The daily trading volume of this cryptocurrency is approximately $25.4 billion, with a market value close to $1.66 trillion.

This rebound comes after a difficult week in the financial markets, during which Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000. Tech stocks are under pressure, oil prices remain high, and investors continue to assess the possibility of tighter monetary policies.

However, despite market forecasts of another significant decline on October 19th, Bitcoin closed around $82,000 on October 18th. The relevant warnings coincided with the 39th anniversary of the stock market crash on October 19, 1987.

Bitcoin's "Black Monday" concerns drive up social discussions

Blockchain analysis firm Santiment indicates that discussions on potential “Black Monday” on cryptocurrency social media have significantly increased.

On October 18th, the phrase “Black Monday” was mentioned 176 times, whereas in the previous 60 days, it was mentioned less than twice per day on average. Data shows that before the trading session on Monday began, expectations of a significant sell-off spread very quickly among market participants.

The most active period over the past 6 hours occurred between UTC 18:00 and 24:00, with Santiment recording 82 mentions. This time frame coincides with the reopening of U.S. stock index futures, and traders began to respond to the changes that occurred over the weekend.

There were 105 general mentions of a market collapse, and Santiment stated that this level is exceptionally high for Sunday. However, this number is still within the range of the past 90 days, indicating that discussions about a broader collapse have not reached an unprecedented level.

Santiment compared the latest readings with a slight increase in negative sentiment on September 14th. Bitcoin fell by about 3% the following day, however, the institution noted that similar sentiment signals have previously corresponded to different market outcomes.

These data measure discussions about potential collapses, not the actual probability of a collapse occurring. Social media activity may increase due to warnings, bearish forecasts, and traders' discussions about potential market trends.

The current price rebound provides a perfect example: despite the exceptionally large number of negative forecasts, Bitcoin still rose on Monday.

Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $229 million, with weakened institutional demand

Institutional investment activities presented a different landscape during the week ending October 16th, with spot Bitcoin in the United States ETF experiencing a net outflow of approximately $228.6 million.

According to fund flow data from October 12th to 16th, there was an outflow of approximately $165 million from BlackRock's iShares and Bitcoin Trust (as well as IBIT). Fidelity's FBTC recorded a redemption of about $60 million during the same period.

Selling pressure was concentrated over multiple trading days, with Bitcoin ETF experiencing a net outflow of approximately $261 million on Wednesday, October 14th. The net inflow of $176 million recorded on Tuesday was not sufficient to offset the redemptions on the remaining trading days.

According to the crypto.news weekly review, Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $320.1 million, which is nearly $92 million more than the outflow from Bitcoin funds. Among the five types of cryptocurrencies ETF being tracked, the total net outflow reached $610.7 million.

These data reflect the net changes in investors' subscriptions and redemptions, rather than the actual transaction losses incurred by all investors holding shares of ETF. Even if investors do not redeem their holdings, the fund's assets may still shrink due to a decline in market prices.

The latest Bitcoin outflow (ETF) occurred against the backdrop of a net outflow of approximately $679 million the previous week. Although the outflow was smaller during the week of October 12-16, two consecutive weeks of negative outflows indicate that institutional demand remains volatile.

The market environment improved slightly on Monday, supported by China's economic growth exceeding expectations and declining oil prices. China's economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, while oil prices fell following the United States' restrictions on Russian energy-related activities.

Analysts are focusing on $81,000; Bitcoin is attempting to repair its trend.

Despite the intraday rebound, several analysts are still focusing on technical levels that may determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward trend.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ted pointed out that despite weak tech stocks, oil prices remaining above $100, and high market volatility, Bitcoin still managed to close for another week above $82,000.

He views $84,500 as the level at which Bitcoin needs to re-establish itself to demonstrate stronger upward momentum. If it fails to regain this level, he warns that Bitcoin could once again fall below $80,000.

Analyst Ali Martinez considers $81,000 to be the lower edge of the upward channel on the Bitcoin daily chart. He believes that if this area continues to receive support from buying orders, the price could rebound to $84,000, and then potentially rise further to $86,500.

Martinez indicates that if Bitcoin continues to fall below $81,000, this graphical pattern will be weakened. He lists $76,000 as a lower level that requires attention. His analysis describes conditional scenarios based on technical indicators, rather than confirmed future price trends.

Another analysis using Crypto Patel indicates a longer-term bullish chart pattern, with $89,000 regarded as a resistance level and $75,600 as a support level. The analyst also lists around $66,700 as another possible retest level; however, if the price falls below approximately $59,800, the bullish pattern would be invalidated.

The upward forecast provided by Patel ranges from $90,000 to $100,000. If the bullish trend continues to form, the target could extend to $125,000. These forecasts depend on future price movements and do not imply that Bitcoin has completed a correction.

The 7-day range provided by CoinGecko is from $79,806 to $84,074, indicating that Bitcoin has been trading within the range emphasized by several analysts recently. As of the time of reporting, the token is still about 34.4% lower than its historical high of $126,080.

Bitcoin's prediction of $10,000 in contrast to its current trend

While short-term traders are focusing on the area around $80,000, analysts Micha, van, de, and Poppe are discussing potential larger gains in the current market cycle.

In a post on October 17th, van de Poppe shared a long-term Bitcoin chart, comparing it with past market cycles as well as the tech boom at the end of the 1990s.

His analysis suggests that Bitcoin may first experience a strong speculative rally, followed by another significant pullback. During the discussion, a price of $1 million was mentioned for this cycle, but no timeline was provided, nor was there any guarantee that this outcome would definitely occur.

The chart referenced by van, de, and Poppe shows that based on a trend line connecting the lows of the previous five Bitcoin cycles, a conservative long-term forecast for 2030 is close to $197,000. Historical trend lines can be used as a way to observe price behavior, but past cycles cannot reliably determine future valuations.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has also previously stated that if Bitcoin can attract more investors seeking a tool for value storage, it could ultimately reach a value of one million US dollars. His framework compares Bitcoin to mature assets used for long-term wealth preservation.

From $82,795 at the time of the report to $1 million, this means that Bitcoin needs to rise by approximately 1,108%. Based on a maximum supply of 21 million coins, a price of $1 million for Bitcoin would correspond to a fully diluted valuation of $2.1 trillion.

This calculation is merely to illustrate the scale of prediction and does not imply that such demand will definitely materialize. Bitcoin's current market value is still far below this theoretical level.

A Bitcoin whale that had been dormant for 13 years transferred $34 million

On another weekend, a long-inactive Bitcoin wallet transferred approximately 411.45 BTC to a new address.

According to the wallet records of Arkham Intelligence, the original address has held the majority of the coins since September 2013. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was around $131, and when the wallet received approximately 411 BTC, the historical value of this portion of the balance was about $54,000.

This transfer occurred on October 18th at around 18:23 UTC, and the funds were transferred to a relatively new SegWit address. Calculated at a price of approximately $82,795 per Bitcoin, 411.45 BTC are worth about 34.1 million US dollars.

The original address can be viewed through the wallet record of Arkham, while the receiving address is listed on the Bitcoin browser.

In the provided chain analysis, the receiving address was not identified as an exchange, and no subsequent transactions were reported at that checkpoint. Transfers between wallets do not prove that the holder has sold Bitcoin.

This transfer continues the trend of large-scale transactions by other long-term dormant holders. Earlier in October, another Bitcoin whale transferred 4,582 BTC, worth approximately $377.6 million, after being inactive for over 6 years.

In August of this year, another instance of dormant wallet transfers involved more than 1,300 BTC being transferred out from an old address. On-chain analysis did not reveal the specific exchange destinations of the main transaction groups.

On October 18th, the wallet adopted a newer SegWit address format, which typically results in lower transaction fees compared to the older format. According to on-chain analysis provided, the history of the original wallet also includes a small number of unrequested deposits, some of which are related to attempts at address poisoning.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.