Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (Abiy Ahmed) received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for reaching reconciliation with neighboring Eritrea. However, a year later, the armies of both countries joined forces to combat the Tigray rebels in northern Ethiopia. Now, this alliance has broken down, and there are concerns that these former allies may be on the verge of war.

This standoff threatens a region that is still recovering from the war between 2020 and 2022. According to researchers at the University of Ghent in Belgium, that war resulted in the death of about 500,000 civilians due to violence, famine, and the collapse of medical services.

The broader struggles over power, seaports, and the water resources of the Nile River link Ethiopia's internal conflicts with regional antagonisms that extend from the Red Sea to Egypt. Here is how these disputes are intertwined with each other.

Tigray region sees renewed fighting; the peace agreement of 2022 has been violated

Tigray is the northernmost region of Ethiopia, bordering Eritrea. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, abbreviated as TPLF, has dominated the Ethiopian government since 1991 until Abi came to power in 2018.

The 2022 "Pretoria Peace Agreement" ended the war between the federal forces and TPLF, but recent renewed conflicts have effectively shattered this agreement. On October 4th, after the withdrawal of TPLF, government-backed armed forces entered Mekelle ( Mekelle ), the capital of Tigray.

The Abi government announced the establishment of a six-month transitional administrative body to restore public services, assist displaced people in returning to their homes, and prepare for elections. However, Magnus Taylor ( Magnus Taylor ), an analyst at International Crisis Group, stated that the loss of towns does not mean that rebels cannot regroup in rural areas.

The rebel alliance poses a severe challenge, but there are also divisions within it.

In September, TPLF allied itself with six other opposition groups in an attempt to overthrow the Prosperity Party government led by Abi. This organization, known as the "Ethiopian People's Survival Forces Alliance," brought together former rivals, including the Amhara Faranwo National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army.

Taylor told The Associated Press that this alliance combines political opposition to Abi with military force. Parallel military operations could draw the federal forces into multiple fronts, but it is still unclear whether these organizations are truly capable of doing so.

There are also divisions within the Tigray armed forces. The "Tigray Peace Forces," composed of former members of the TPLF armed faction and fighting alongside the federal troops, are engaged in combat against the rebels.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Rekindle Old Feuds

Ethiopian authorities accuse TPLF of attempting to form an alliance with Eritrea in order to undermine Ethiopia's stability, which could lead to the former enemies of the last war joining forces again. Eritrea denies supporting TPLF.

Ethiopia also accuses Eritrea of supporting rebels and occupying Ethiopian territory; The Associated Press is unable to independently verify these allegations. Eritrea, in turn, accuses Ethiopia of attempting to obtain a sea outlet by force.

Diplomatic relations between the two countries have broken down. Ethiopia claims that it was acting in self-defense, while Eritrea regards Ethiopia's assertion of self-defense measures as an act of war declaration.

The two countries were involved in a border war between 1998 and 2000, and a peacekeeping mission established by the United Nations later reported that the war resulted in about 70,000 deaths. The prolonged standoff finally ended in 2018 due to reconciliation between Abi and Eritrea's President Isaias Afewerki ( Isaias Afwerki ).

Eritrea did not participate in the 2022 peace agreement for Tigray. Human rights organizations and United Nations experts accused its forces of committing rape, robbery, and other war atrocities. In 2023, Isaias dismissed these accusations as "fantasies."

Abi has continuously called for Ethiopia to gain sovereign access to Eritrea's Red Sea port of Asab ( Assab ), which has caused concern in Eritrea and deepened the rifts between the two countries.

Ethiopia seeks an outlet to the sea, raising high alert among neighboring countries

Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world, with an estimated population of 135.5 million, but its trade relies heavily on the ports of its neighboring country, Djibouti.

Abi's efforts to find alternative solutions have also intensified tensions with Somalia. In 2024, Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland, a separatist region of Somalia, proposing to rent a section of the coastline for an Ethiopian naval base. The authorities of Somaliland stated that in exchange, Ethiopia would recognize their independence.

This dispute has brought Somalia closer to Egypt. In October 2024, leaders of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea pledged to carry out regional security cooperation, linking Somalia's concerns about sovereignty, Eritrea's worries regarding ports, and the disputes between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile water resources.

Subsequently, Turkish mediation led to an agreement that allowed Ethiopia and Somalia to advance commercial maritime routes under Somali sovereignty.

Egypt and Sudan exert pressure on Ethiopia regarding Nile River water resources

Egypt relies almost entirely on the Nile River for its water supply for population and agriculture, and claims that the dams built by Ethiopia upstream pose a threat to their survival.

Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam ( Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam ) was completed in September 2025 on the Blue Nile near Sudan, and it is the largest hydropower dam in Africa. The project aims to double Ethiopia's power generation capacity and support electricity exports. Ethiopia has stated that it will not deprive downstream countries of their rightful share of water resources.

The core of the dispute lies in how much water Ethiopia will release in the event of a prolonged drought. Egypt and Sudan hope to establish binding rules for dam storage and operation; Ethiopia, on the other hand, prefers guiding principles. Sudan also hopes to protect its own dams through coordination.

Egypt and Sudan welcomed the United States' proposal to mediate in the dam dispute in January, but the disagreements extend to the broader distribution of Nile River water resources. Another agreement for the Nile River basin came into effect in 2024, advocating for the fair and reasonable use of river water. Ethiopia and five other countries support this agreement; Egypt and Sudan, however, refuse to sign it, fearing that their share of water will be reduced.

The risk lies in the possibility that internal conflicts in Ethiopia, tensions with Eritrea, and regional disputes over ports and water resources could intensify one another. Taylor warned that the close proximity of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops increases the risk of a larger-scale conflict.