According to reports from his latest television interview, Michael Selliger, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the United States, stated that authorities are monitoring and predicting the market in order to prevent possible manipulation before the 2026 mid-term elections in the United States.

The key points are as follows:

• Mike Selig stated that CFTC is monitoring and predicting the market to prevent any manipulation before the U.S. mid-term elections.
• As of October 18th, the total outstanding contracts from the mid-term elections for Kalshi and Polymarket amounted to 250 million US dollars.
• CFTC imposed a financial penalty and a three-year trading ban on the settlement case between Gabriel Perez and Jorge Santos.
• Guidance issued in September requires the establishment of targeted protective measures for contracts related to individual words and actions.

According to available report summaries, Bloomberg's interview with Selig on October 23 also covered the monitoring of the election market and an investigation into oil transactions during the Iran war. The summary stated that institutions were paying attention to any signs of manipulation before the mid-term elections, but did not mention any new enforcement cases related to the elections.

These remarks are directed at a market that already holds hundreds of millions of dollars in open positions. Research published by Dune on October 20 showed that as of October 18, the combined open contracts for the mid-term elections of Kalshi and Polymarket amounted to 250 million dollars.

This accessible interview summary does not identify any operator as a new target for manipulation. A separate record from CFTC indicates that the authorities have taken action against individual traders and have requested exchanges to make corresponding arrangements for contracts related to individual behavior.

Predicts that the market holds $250 million in positions for the midterms

Dune mentioned in its dated snapshots that the outstanding contracts from Kalshi's mid-term elections amounted to 210 million US dollars, while for Polymarket it was 40 million US dollars. According to their data, Kalshi accounted for 84%, and the two platforms had a combined nominal transaction volume of 59 million US dollars over a period of 7 days up to October 18th.

Throughout the entire election cycle, Dune recorded a notional trading volume of $353 million for Kalshi, and $160 million for Polymarket. The study also reported cash trading volumes of $147 million and $77 million respectively, distinguishing these figures from notional transactions and open positions.

The same analysis shows that 24,930 Polymarket wallets hold positions in the mid-term elections, with an average position value of $14. The top 100 wallets account for 56% of the total position value; however, the number of wallets does not necessarily reflect the actual number of traders.

The data of Dune describes activities as of October 18th, and it does not represent the current balance, nor is it an identification of improper behavior. The public snapshots provided cannot prove that large position sizes, concentrated holdings, or market price differences are caused by manipulation.

CFTC Command to display penalties and trading bans

A settlement case dated August 28th from CFTC provided an enforcement example involving confidential government information. The agency required Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, to return $107,539.02 in transaction profits and pay a civil fine of $65,000.

Regulatory authorities determined that Pérez took advantage of his early access to the president's speeches to trade contracts based on words or phrases that the president might utter. The agency announced that such transactions occurred from December 2025 to February 2026 and stated that he violated his obligations of trust and confidentiality.

Perez was prohibited from trading for three years and agreed to cease any further violations of the Commodity Trading Act and institutional regulations. CFTC indicates that his cooperation significantly reduced the fine, and KalshiEX assisted in the investigation.

Another settlement dated July 31 involved former Congressman George Santos making a deal regarding whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union Address event.

CFTC determined that Santos made significant false statements and omissions regarding its attendance plans on social media, while simultaneously buying and selling related positions. According to the institution, prices subsequently moved in a direction favorable to its positions.

Santos was required to return a profit of $1.756998 million and pay a civil fine of $17,500. The settlement also imposed a three-year trading ban on him and required him to cease any further violations.

"Mentioning contracts" faces targeted scrutiny

In a consultation opinion issued on September 22, the staff of CFTC addressed another aspect of exchange regulation, which pertained to contracts related to the statements, attendance, appearances, or interactions of specific individuals. The staff indicated that settlements based on individual behavior may carry a higher risk of manipulation.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the guidance reminds exchanges to be aware of the risks associated with "contract mentions" and requires the establishment of corresponding safeguard measures for specific products.

Institutional announcement reminding designated contract markets to comply with Core Principle 3, which is to list only contracts that are not easily manipulated. Staff are required to submit complete and contract-specific analyses in accordance with Part 40 of the committee's rules.

In a legal analysis dated October 2, lawyers Jeff Lurich and Kip Randall of Husch Blackwell explained that the advisory opinion neither completely prohibits mentions of contracts nor creates new legal obligations. They believe that this means exchanges that list or seek to list these products will face stricter scrutiny.

Two lawyers distinguished between contracts determined by individual actions, and products based on independently generated results that can be externally verified, such as election outcomes and economic data releases.

Federal jurisdiction remains another point of contention in court disputes.

CFTC has defended its jurisdiction over the forecasting market through court documents. In a statement on May 12, the commission stated that it had submitted an amicus curiae brief in the case of KalshiEx LLC v. Matthew T Schuler before the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Their position is that the federal regulatory framework takes precedence over state laws when applied to markets governed by CFTC. This announcement assigns the case number 26-3196 and requests the appellate court to correct what CFTC refers to as an overly narrow interpretation of jurisdiction by the Federal District Court of Ohio.