web3: Bitcoin falls back to around $63,500, market shifts its focus to the Federal Reserve
CoinDesk
08-13 11:44
Ai Focus
After U.S. inflation data met expectations, Bitcoin fell back to around $63,500, with market attention shifting to the Jackson Hole Symposium and subsequent employment and inflation data.
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美国7月通胀数据基本符合预期后,市场对通胀反弹的担忧有所缓解,但加密资产并未出现明显跟涨。比特币一度回落至 6.35 万美元附近,交易员的关注点开始转向美联储接下来的政策信号。

通胀数据未带来新催化

报道显示,美国7月整体 CPI 环比上涨 0.1%,同比上涨 3.4%;核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%,同比放缓至 2.5%。数据公布后,市场对美联储 9 月继续加息的押注有所下降。

期货市场显示,9月加息概率从数据公布前的 46% 降至约 38%。黄金、股指期货和部分数字资产短线走高,但涨幅有限。比特币随后回落,说明这份数据更多是消除了风险,而不是带来新的上涨动力。

主流代币多数走低

截至报道发布时,比特币日内跌逾 0.5%,近一周跌幅接近 2%。除个别代币外,主要加密资产普遍走弱,市场整体仍缺乏统一方向。

  • HYPE 上涨逾 3%,报 56 美元左右
  • TRX 小幅升至 0.34 美元下方
  • DOGE、XRP、BNB、SOL、ETH 普遍回落

CF Benchmarks 研究主管 Gabe Selby 表示,比特币通常会在通胀数据明显低于预期时出现更强反应;若数据只是符合预期,往往只能消除尾部风险,难以单独推动新一轮行情。

市场转向三项后续事件

在本次通胀数据影响消化后,市场接下来更关注三项时间节点:本月稍晚举行的杰克逊霍尔央行年会、9 月 4 日的美国就业报告,以及 9 月 11 日公布的下一次通胀数据。

Selby认为,住房成本涨幅仅为 0.1%,能源价格环比下降 1.5%,汽油价格下降 2.9%,这些因素给了美联储更多观望空间。对加密市场而言,真正能推动价格重新定价的,仍可能是超预期的宏观数据或更明确的政策信号。

全球市场反应分化

与加密市场相比,全球股市对这份通胀数据的反应更积极。MSCI 亚太指数上涨近 1%,韩国 Kospi 指数大涨近 4%,并进入技术性牛市区间。

不过,风险资产表现并不一致。思科财报后盘后跌逾 4%,Cerebras Systems 因硬件销售下滑下跌 17%。国际油价则结束此前连续六日上涨走势,显示市场情绪仍偏谨慎。

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