The betting contracts on Kalshi show that traders' expectations for the price of XRP ($XRP-USD) to rise to $1.70 by September 30 are declining. The price of this contract has fallen from 36 cents to 32 cents within 24 hours, which means that there is only about a one-third chance of this price target being met.
XRP is currently trading around $1.55, which means the token needs to rise by about 9.8% within five days to reach $1.70. Earlier this month, XRP successfully broke through the targets of $1.40, $1.50, and $1.60 set by Kalshi, and on September 23rd, it even reached $1.64 before falling back to near $1.50.
Market factors have limited the rebound of XRP.
Kalshi settles bets based on the average market price of CF Benchmarks. During the calculation, the highest 20% and lowest 20% of prices per minute are excluded. This rule means that a brief and rapid increase in price on a single exchange will not trigger the settlement of bets; therefore, XRP must be maintained at a higher price level for a longer period of time.
The broader market environment also makes investors reluctant to further push up the price of XRP. High interest rates encourage investors to keep their cash in traditional banks, while Bitcoin remains hovering around $84,000, dragging down the buying momentum for XRP and other digital tokens.
At the same time, security concerns have also made XRP buyers more cautious. The security team is tracking the $157 million in XRP that was stolen in the Bitget hacking incident. These tokens remain in unfrozen wallets, which worries traders about a sudden sell-off in the market.
In addition, the average holding position of long-term holders of XRP still resulted in a loss of 11.75% over the past year, which has also led many investors to choose to wait and see.
Traders are more optimistic about a full-year target of $2.00, rather than making short-term bets.
Despite the short-term probability of a temperature drop in September, traders' support for the annual target remains strong. The contract price target for XRP to reach $2.00 in 2026 has increased from 53 cents to 59 cents. The contract price target for $2.50 has risen from 26 cents to 33 cents, and the target for $3.00 has increased from 19 cents to 24 cents. Kalshi
New funds flowing into spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also provided additional support; on September 25th, related funds saw a net inflow of 22.65 million US dollars, with Bitwise leading the way. However, these buying efforts were not sufficient to push the spot XRP price back above 1.60 US dollars.
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