The ETH pattern remains a wedge, but the price has been oscillating near the support level without breaking down, indicating that the support is effective. If this support holds, the wedge pattern may become invalid. The next resistance level to watch is the 2K line, which is also the upper edge of the wedge. A break above this line could potentially evolve into a continuation pattern.
Last night, I entered a long position at 1880 with a stop-loss at breakeven. The price action at the low triggered the stop-loss. I'll wait for a pullback on a smaller timeframe and then consider entering another long position. The support range remains 1870-1850. As long as the support holds, going long still offers good value.
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GiGi 發財豬
フォロー
Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses $100 billion, but Meta's guidance is weak; is the AI narrative diverging?
BTC is currently at $63,930. The market awaits tonight's answer; let's first discuss what was released last night:
Microsoft's Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, up 18%, with accelerated Azure growth and better-than-expected Copilot enterprise paid user data. This is AI monetization, not just an AI story. Every Copilot subscription represents a real monthly fee, and every Azure AI call represents a real bill.
Meta's revenue reached $60.8 billion, up 28%, a faster growth rate than Microsoft's. However, free cash flow hit a four-year low, and capital expenditures are expected to reach $130-145 billion. The market reaction was a decline.
🤔 Why did a higher growth rate lead to a decline?
Because these two companies are doing fundamentally different things. Microsoft sells AI to enterprises, while Meta uses AI to burn money building infrastructure. One is revenue, the other is investment.
Meta's business model is essentially advertising. AI has improved the accuracy of its ad targeting, which is already reflected in its revenue, as evidenced by the +28% increase.
But Zuckerberg wants more than that. He's betting on AGI, the Llama open-source ecosystem, and next-generation computing infrastructure. The return on these investments won't be seen in just one quarter.
🤔 The question is: with so much money being burned, how long is the market willing to wait?
I'm reminded of Amazon from 2013 to 2018. During those years, the market constantly criticized Bezos for burning money without making any, but AWS was quietly becoming the world's largest cloud computing platform. Today, AWS's gross margin supports the entire Amazon ecosystem. Zuckerberg is probably making the same bet, only this time on the infrastructure of the AI era.
But there's a key difference: Amazon is burning money to build the cloud, with a clear B2B monetization path. What is Meta burning money to build? Open-source models, self-developed chips, and super data centers. The beneficiaries are the entire industry. Where is Meta's own competitive advantage? Until this question has a clear answer, the continued decline in FCF will remain a variable suppressing valuations.
Therefore, this isn't a divergence in the AI story, but rather an inherent difference in monetization pace.
Microsoft is pursuing a SaaS embedded approach; AI has entered Office, Teams, and Azure, with enterprise customers paying per seat, and cash flow is visible today. Meta is pursuing a platform reshaping approach; AI needs to redefine what kind of company it is, and this answer may not be clear for another three years.
Tonight's Amazon earnings report is the most important validation today. If AWS accelerates, it indicates that enterprise AI cloud demand hasn't peaked, making Microsoft Azure's story more stable. If AWS guidance falls short of expectations, then Microsoft's rise last night was an isolated event, not an industry-wide resonance. The key to Apple is service revenue and Apple Intelligence penetration rate; these are the first real data points for AI monetization in the consumer market.
Only after these two earnings reports are released will the full picture of AI monetization be complete tonight.
Until then, the direction of BTC remains uncertain.
DYOR (Not investment advice)
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AB Kuai.Dong
フォロー
It seems that analysts who bought semiconductor stocks last night were all citing this JPMorgan report.
JPMorgan believes that the recent decline in South Korea was initially triggered by routine fundamental concerns and profit-taking by investors, and was subsequently amplified by leveraged ETFs, leading to a sharp deleveraging. However, with the completion of large-scale liquidation, market leverage levels have fallen to an acceptable range.
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Crypto.com
フォロー
Latest DeFi + L1/L2 Updates:
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Mario Nawfal
フォロー
🇺🇦🇮🇷 Ukraine and Iran have been at war for years through Russia.
Long before Ukrainian drones reached the Caspian Sea, Iran was already involved in this conflict, providing Russia with the design for the Shahed drone and strategies for circumventing sanctions, thus ensuring the flow of drone components. Since then, these drones have been landing over Ukrainian cities.
Kyiv spent three years learning how to shoot down these drones, making it one of the world's most experienced counter-drone forces.
This experience is crucial now.
The US spends millions of dollars buying interceptors to intercept cheap Iranian drones but cannot replace them in time, and Gulf states face the same dilemma every night.
Ukraine can build counter-drone systems quickly and cheaply; all it lacks is funding.
Therefore, when Zelensky met with Trump this week to discuss air defense, he was selling Washington something Washington desperately needed—something built by a common enemy.
Source: CNN, Reuters / Author: Daniel
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21
Ai 姨
フォロー
After a sharp drop in the US storage sector last night, a whale opened a long position of $85.63 million, betting on an AI narrative rebound. 🤨
The address 0xaea…c2416 added 7.29 million USDC margin this morning, subsequently opening long positions in S&P 500, Micron, and SanDisk, currently showing a floating loss of $470,000.
▶︎ $SP500 20x Long Position: Holding 10,124.4 shares (approximately $74.48 million), opening price $7,359.2
▶︎ $MU 10x Long Position: Holding 9,132.74 shares (approximately $6.77 million), opening price $767.31, take profit price $877.44, stop loss price $719.99
▶︎ $SNDK 10x Long Position: Holding 4,693.39 shares (approximately $484 million) (US$10,000), Opening price $1,067, Take profit price $1,318, Stop loss price $984.99
Link 👉
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很大很大的橙子
フォロー
The instructors said that Microsoft's stock surged in after-hours trading last night, while SK Hynix's fell, mainly because the market believed Microsoft's AI Capex had peaked.
My first reaction: Seriously? Microsoft's quarterly Capex reached $41 billion, a 70% year-over-year increase, and future data center leasing commitments continue to rise. This is considered a Capex peak?
The instructors explained: The market isn't looking at absolute values, but rather "expectations of expectations"—previously, the CY2026 Capex was expected to be around $190 billion, but now it's $175 billion. While still a huge investment, it's lower than originally expected, so it's good for Microsoft, but marginally bad for the SK Hynix/HBM supply chain.
I was speechless.
Now, when investing in AI hardware stocks, you can't just study "whether Capex is increasing," you also have to study "whether Capex growth exceeds market expectations for Capex growth."
First-order growth isn't enough; the second derivative needs to continue upward.
This market has truly become entangled in "expectations of expectations".
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QFi 元宇宙阿Q 🔰
フォロー
What I learned from this experience with US stocks:
1. When the market is rising, don't let technical analysis convince you; when it's falling, don't let fundamental analysis convince you.
2. Avoid FOMO (fear of missing out). Don't go all in when you're in a frenzy.
3. Don't blindly follow the crowd. Sometimes the truth is on the side of the minority.
4. When a major trend reverses, be sure to cut your losses promptly. Completely change your mindset. Being willing to admit mistakes is a good quality.
5. Those who are out of the market shouldn't laugh at those who lost big by trying to buy Micron at the bottom. The magnitude of this drop was absolutely beyond our comprehension and expectations. I think this scene is comparable to a circuit breaker.
My US stock market operations:
1. Shorted Micron at $983 on Binance, believing it might be the absolute high of this shorting cycle. I'm still holding the short position.
2. Added to my Micron short position on Hyperliquid at $930 and closed it at $800 for profit.
3. Shorted SanDisk on HL at $1580 and closed it at $1300 for profit. 4. I haven't bought the dip yet. My plan is to buy at 650-680, with a limit order at 670. I missed the opportunity after last night's sharp drop, so I'll continue to wait.
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藤蔓鲁哥
07-29 18:05
フォロー
I recommended $coti last night, but deleted it because it was at a high price. I bought some today on a pullback, and the data is still pretty good. Also, I haven't sold $bulla, so please don't message me. I'm down 15 points right now.
I also sold a large position in $on, but I'm still holding a small position, hoping for a better future.
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币安Binance华语
07-29 17:22
フォロー
【Binance AMA】When the FOMC collides with earnings season, who will determine the next market move? 🤔
Join us tomorrow night at 8 PM (UTC+8) on #BinanceSquare to discuss how the market will price its data 👀
🎙️Host: @miyayweb3
🧑🏫Special Guests: @Cato_KT @TiezhuCrypto
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