At age 11, Buffett bought his first stock for $114.75.
He sold it early with a small profit, but within weeks the stock price soared to $200.
The lost profit far exceeded his initial gain.
This premature profit-taking became his first lesson for life.
Over eighty years, his net worth reached $165 billion. The underlying habit behind his immense wealth is simple: buy quality assets, hold them patiently, and don't sell easily.
In 1999, during the dot-com bubble frenzy, everyone chased tech stocks, mocking Buffett for being out of touch. He remained unmoved, sticking to his circle of competence.
In 1988, he invested $1 billion in Coca-Cola, holding it long-term. This investment grew to $25 billion, providing a stable annual dividend of $700 million.
In 2016, at 85, Buffett broke with conventional wisdom and heavily invested in Apple, even after claiming he didn't understand tech stocks. This holding peaked at $160 billion.
Ordinary people often fantasize about getting rich quick in a few weeks or months.
True snowballing compound interest relies on long-term perseverance. It's not about buying into the fluctuations of stock charts, but rather into companies with sustainable competitive advantages and continuously growing value.
When the market is in a panic sell-off, remember this: Compound interest doesn't come from frequent trading, but from choosing the right assets and enduring the long wait.
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阿布说币
07-29 08:53
フォロー
At age 11, Buffett bought his first stock for $114.75.
He sold it early with a small profit, but within weeks the stock price soared to $200.
The lost profit far exceeded his initial gain.
This premature profit-taking became his first lesson for life.
Over eighty years, his net worth reached $165 billion. The underlying habit behind his immense wealth is simple: buy quality assets, hold them patiently, and don't sell easily.
In 1999, during the dot-com bubble frenzy, everyone chased tech stocks, mocking Buffett for being out of touch. He remained unmoved, sticking to his circle of competence.
In 1988, he invested $1 billion in Coca-Cola, holding it long-term. This investment grew to $25 billion, providing a stable annual dividend of $700 million.
In 2016, at 85, Buffett broke with conventional wisdom and heavily invested in Apple, even after claiming he didn't understand tech stocks. This holding peaked at $160 billion.
Ordinary people often fantasize about getting rich quick in a few weeks or months.
True snowballing compound interest relies on long-term perseverance. It's not about buying into the fluctuations of stock charts, but rather into companies with sustainable competitive advantages and continuously growing value.
When the market is in a panic sell-off, remember this: Compound interest doesn't come from frequent trading, but from choosing the right assets and enduring the long wait.
316
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Una繁星
07-29 00:12
フォロー
SK Hynix fell 13%-14% today. The last time we saw such a large single-day drop was during the 2008 financial crisis.
Micron also opened lower tonight. Looking back at previous major pullbacks in chip stocks:
2000-2002 Dot-com Bubble: The SOX index fell 80%-85% from its peak.
2008 Financial Crisis: A drop of 60-70%.
2022 Bear Market: Frenzied interest rate hikes slashed valuations, and inventory cycles impacted earnings, resulting in a 35%-46% drop.
2020 Pandemic Impact: A rapid 35% drop, followed by a rapid rebound.
The semiconductor industry experiences an inventory adjustment cycle almost every 3-5 years. From the 1990s, 2001, 2008, 2018-2019, to 2022, history has shown almost no exceptions.
By 2026, four years will have passed since the last inventory cycle. While the demand structure has changed in the AI era, the inventory cycle logic still applies to consumer electronics and general-purpose memory.
History tells us that industries that survive can recover. But it doesn't tell us that after a nearly sevenfold increase, it can continue to rise indefinitely, another sevenfold; there will always be a limit.
As for when that limit will come, it ultimately depends on the major customers of storage stocks—the tech giants. If their investments don't yield long-term returns, and the returns are far below expectations, then the current valuations of storage stocks are unjustified.
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海登
07-28 21:21
フォロー
2000: S&P 500/M2 peaked → Dot-com bubble burst.
2021: S&P 500/M2 neared previous high → Bear market in 2022.
2026: S&P 500/M2 touched previous high again → ?
Historically, this signal has never been "harmless".
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阿布说币
07-28 13:46
フォロー
At age 11, Buffett bought his first stock for $114.75.
He sold it early with a small profit, but within weeks the stock price soared to $200.
The lost profit far exceeded his initial gain.
This premature profit-taking became his first lesson for life.
Over eighty years, his net worth reached $165 billion. The underlying habit behind his immense wealth is simple: buy quality assets, hold them patiently, and don't sell easily.
In 1999, during the dot-com bubble frenzy, everyone chased tech stocks, mocking Buffett for being out of touch. He remained unmoved, sticking to his circle of competence.
In 1988, he invested $1 billion in Coca-Cola, holding it long-term. This investment grew to $25 billion, providing a stable annual dividend of $700 million.
In 2016, at 85, Buffett broke with conventional wisdom and heavily invested in Apple, even after claiming he didn't understand tech stocks. This holding peaked at $160 billion.
Ordinary people often fantasize about getting rich quick in a few weeks or months.
True snowballing compound interest relies on long-term perseverance. It's not about buying into the fluctuations of stock charts, but rather into companies with sustainable competitive advantages and continuously growing value.
When the market is in a panic sell-off, remember this: Compound interest doesn't come from frequent trading, but from choosing the right assets and enduring the long wait.
352
0
0
40
阿布说币
07-28 11:32
フォロー
At age 11, Buffett bought his first stock for $114.75.
He sold it early with a small profit, but within weeks the stock price soared to $200.
The lost profit far exceeded his initial gain.
This premature profit-taking became his first lesson for life.
Over eighty years, his net worth reached $165 billion. The underlying habit behind his immense wealth is simple: buy quality assets, hold them patiently, and don't sell easily.
In 1999, during the dot-com bubble frenzy, everyone chased tech stocks, mocking Buffett for being out of touch. He remained unmoved, sticking to his circle of competence.
In 1988, he invested $1 billion in Coca-Cola, holding it long-term. This investment grew to $25 billion, providing a stable annual dividend of $700 million.
In 2016, at 85, Buffett broke with conventional wisdom and heavily invested in Apple, even after claiming he didn't understand tech stocks. This holding peaked at $160 billion.
Ordinary people often fantasize about getting rich quick in a few weeks or months.
True snowballing compound interest relies on long-term perseverance. It's not about buying into the fluctuations of stock charts, but rather into companies with sustainable competitive advantages and continuously growing value.
When the market is in a panic sell-off, remember this: Compound interest doesn't come from frequent trading, but from choosing the right assets and enduring the long wait.
421
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21
QFi 元宇宙阿Q 🔰
07-28 07:25
フォロー
Isn't Micron a leader in AI memory? Didn't its financial report look good? Why short it?
Let me explain my logic—three signals have appeared simultaneously.
First, from a macro perspective, the US government just announced new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners, directly impacting the semiconductor supply chain. Import costs for specialty chemicals, silicon wafers, and manufacturing equipment have all increased, putting real pressure on chip companies' profit margins. The market will begin to reprice the long-term cost structure of the semiconductor industry.
Second, Michael Burry has also been shorting Micron, with an entry price of approximately $1051.87. And just a few hours ago, he added to his short position near the $930 level. Many people don't recognize him, but you know the TV show "The Big Short"—he's the inspiration for it. His assessment is that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is about 65% above its 200-day moving average, a deviation only seen during the dot-com bubble of 2000.
Third, the 52-week high of 1255 has been followed by a rebound to 800, and now it's at 920. The daily uptrend has broken down, and any further upward movement will face significant selling pressure.
So, what's next? I have two scenarios in mind:
1- Following the red arrow in my chart, it will reach around 800, rebound, and then continue to fall, finding support around 6XX.
2- This decline will end around 800, followed by a period of consolidation. A direction will emerge after this consolidation.
In the short term, I think the selling pressure in the storage sector hasn't ended yet. The Nasdaq has also seen two consecutive weekly declines, indicating weak market sentiment.
Continue to hold short positions and monitor the support level around 800. $MU $SNDK
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GiGi 發財豬
07-27 16:32
フォロー
The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision early Thursday morning.
This FOMC meeting is interesting, with several variables moving simultaneously.
After expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire emerged, oil prices fell sharply, and the energy sector, which had been weighing on the inflation narrative last week, suddenly eased. Initial jobless claims were 187,000, lower than expected, indicating the labor market is still holding up. These two data points combined give the Fed more room to maneuver, but this doesn't mean they will actually take action.
Powell's recent logic is clear: good data doesn't equal a rate cut; the trend matters. One week of improved data doesn't constitute a trend, and he won't surprise the market just because oil prices have fallen.
I think it's highly likely they will hold rates steady this time, but the wording will be more flexible. If the statement includes statements about easing inflationary pressures, or if a member of the dot plot increases the number of rate cuts this year, that would be a real signal. The market is currently pricing in rate cuts starting in September, and the role of this FOMC meeting is to confirm or deny this expectation, not to take direct action.
The same week also sees earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon; capital expenditure guidance is the real market focus. If tech giants collectively increase their AI infrastructure spending, the narrative on computing power will gain another foothold, potentially providing a more direct boost to crypto and chip stocks than any FOMC statement.
FTX's fifth round of $900 million in creditor payments will begin on July 31st, coinciding closely with the FOMC's announcement. Historically, FTX payments have been followed by a short-term improvement in liquidity, a reaction observed in the crypto market.
BTC has climbed back above 65K, and the Fear & Greed Index has returned to 30, indicating sentiment is recovering but not yet in the greed zone. This is not the time to chase the highs; it's a time to wait for confirmation.
Before 2:00 AM on Thursday, the direction remains unclear. We await the wording of the statement, Powell's press conference, and Microsoft's Meta earnings report. These catalysts converge in the same week, inevitably leading to volatility. The direction will be determined by the data.
I'm not adding to my positions now; I'll wait for Thursday's results.
DYOR (Not investment advice)
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Ark Invest Tracker
07-26 23:40
フォロー
Brian Ams: Open-Source Models Could Revolutionize AI Trading
When asked if artificial intelligence is like the dot-com bubble, Coinbase CEO Brian Ams partially agreed, pointing out the real risks:
- The demand for intelligence currently seems endless, so this demand will continue.
- But open-source models are only about six months behind, and their inference costs are typically 99% lower, so a larger proportion of workloads may shift to them.
- It's like Moore's Law, but more dramatic: models become good enough and cheap enough to run on general-purpose hardware, and most users will become price-sensitive.
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K三 凯
07-25 15:35
フォロー
Isn't Micron a leader in AI memory? Didn't its financial report look good? Why short it?
Let me explain my logic—three signals have appeared simultaneously.
First, from a macro perspective, the US government just announced new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners, directly impacting the semiconductor supply chain. Import costs for specialty chemicals, silicon wafers, and manufacturing equipment have all increased, putting real pressure on chip companies' profit margins. The market will begin to reprice the long-term cost structure of the semiconductor industry.
Second, Michael Burry has also been shorting Micron, with an entry price of approximately $1051.87. And just a few hours ago, he added to his short position near the $930 level. Many people don't recognize him, but you know the TV show "The Big Short"—he's the inspiration for it. His assessment is that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is about 65% above its 200-day moving average, a deviation only seen during the dot-com bubble of 2000.
Third, the 52-week high of 1255 has been followed by a rebound to 800, and now it's at 920. The daily uptrend has broken down, and any further upward movement will face significant selling pressure.
So, what's next? I have two scenarios in mind:
1- Following the red arrow in my chart, it will reach around 800, rebound, and then continue to fall, finding support around 6XX.
2- This decline will end around 800, followed by a period of consolidation. A direction will emerge after this consolidation.
In the short term, I think the selling pressure in the storage sector hasn't ended yet. The Nasdaq has also seen two consecutive weekly declines, indicating weak market sentiment.
Continue to hold short positions and monitor the support level around 800. $MU $SNDK