Foreign media reports that Arthur Hayes recently stated in an interview that Bitcoin's recent weakness does not necessarily indicate a global liquidity crunch. According to his assessment, new funds have not left the market, but rather flowed more into AI-related companies and their supply chains, which has suppressed the relative performance of crypto assets.
New funds flow into the AI sector
Hayes stated that the expansion of the US dollar M2 did not directly translate into Bitcoin buying. A significant portion of the funds flowed into semiconductor, AI hardware, and AI ecosystem-related companies. As AI becomes the most concentrated trading theme in the current market, funds that might have been allocated to crypto assets are being absorbed by other technology assets.
He likened this wave of AI enthusiasm to past concentrated bets on Apple's supply chain. The difference is that this time the funding covers a wider range, involving multiple aspects such as chips, equipment, and supporting infrastructure.
AI profits have not flowed into crypto assets.
Many investors had previously anticipated that profits from the rise in AI stocks might shift to Bitcoin. Hayes disagrees with this assessment. He believes that this capital will first flow into real-world assets and consumer spending, including housing, luxury cars, high-end watches, and travel. Some investors will also continue to increase their holdings in Nasdaq-listed tech stocks, rather than entering the crypto market.
In his view, Bitcoin's recent price performance has been weak, diminishing its appeal as an inflation hedge. For some investors, it might be better to continue holding or increase their allocation to large-cap tech stocks rather than switching to BTC.
If AI prices correct, the crypto market may fall first.
Hayes also refuted the claim that "a pullback in the AI sector will automatically benefit Bitcoin." He believes that once AI stocks experience a significant decline, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will likely be the first to feel the pressure.
The reason is that when the market enters a stress phase, investors typically prioritize selling the most liquid assets to meet margin calls or quickly recover cash. Crypto assets, which trade 24/7, are often the first to be sold.
However, he also noted that this correlation may not be sustainable in the long term. Only after the passive selling subsides will the market re-evaluate the strength and weakness of assets. In his view, only when the investment fervor surrounding AI significantly slows will funds be more likely to reassess Bitcoin and other digital assets more seriously.
